Wall Street oil play: Sell low and buy high

September 29th, 2006, filed by Marc Gerstein

Everybody and anybody on Wall Street has an opinion about oil prices. Who’s right?

Commitment of Traders data on open crude oil futures positions collected by the CFTC suggests that over the past year, investors in Light Sweet crude oil futures have been quite adept at selling low and buying high. Comparable data for commercial buyers - those who have an extra stake because they actually take delivery of oil – have managed to buy low and sell high.

Date Spot
price
Net long/short positions
Investors Commercial
traders
9/19/06 61.77 22,504 -1,917
8/15/06 72.95 83,794 -74,841
5/2/06 74.62 94,094 -88,086
1/3/06 63.11 -14,403 28,718

Further analysis of trends in the futures market suggests that if oil slides down to the mid-$50s, as some suggested just a few days ago, that level may prove just as fleeting as the recent mid-$70s peak.

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